Forecasting the Future of Timelines!

An Awesome Monday to all of you,

Let’s talk about time—the one thing we never seem to have enough of, especially in tech projects. If you’ve ever found yourself staring at a missed deadline wondering how did we get here?—this one’s for you.

Stop Estimating, Start Forecasting!

The traditional way of planning—guessing timelines and praying for the best—has some... let’s say, "predictable" outcomes:

1. 🚧 Delays.

2. 💸 Budget overruns.

3. 🤯 Frustrated teams and stakeholders.

But what if you could stop guessing and start predicting, with real confidence? In our book we are suggesting Monte Carlo Simulations as a potential way to become more precise in our delivery.

What’s a Monte Carlo Simulation?

Imagine rolling a 53-sided die 10,000 times (don’t worry, software does the rolling for you). Each roll simulates possible outcomes for your project’s timeline based on past performance. The result? A range of probable delivery dates—each assigned a percentage likelihood.

For example:

• 🎯 43% chance of delivery by June 1.

• 🎯 95% chance by October 12.

• 🎯 100% chance by December 3.

It’s planning, but smarter.

Why Does This Matter?

With this approach, you’ll:

• Save time and resources.

• Earn stakeholder trust.

• Reduce that sinking feeling when deadlines slip.

Even better, these simulations are easy to implement with tools like ActionableAgile™ Analytics or Portfolio Forecaster for Jira.

Bonus Tip: Deliver What Matters First

Forecasting isn’t just about when—it’s about what. Prioritize features with the highest business value early. That way, even if delays hit, the most critical elements are already in place.

So, let’s ditch the guesswork and embrace forecasting. Your projects—and sanity—will thank you.

Until next time,

Sophie & Matthia

Readers Tip: the #Noestimates Movement : https://medium.com/agileinsider/estimate-x-no-estimates-8a1d22bc497e 

P.S. Want to dive deeper? We dedicated a whole Chapter of our book All Hands on Tech on this topic. Let’s make missed deadlines a thing of the past!